There are not a ton of storylines seeping out of Houston from Super Bowl LI. The Patriots and Falcons are similar in their approach to the public spotlight, spending much of the week giving non-answers. What’s interesting, though, is that pretty much everyone seems convinced the Patriots are going to win.
After all, if you haven’t heard, Bill Belichick knows how to take away what teams do best.
The money is following the Patriots too. According to Bovada.lv, 62 percent of the total money is currently on New England to win the game.
So just 38 percent of the public is betting on the Falcons to cover the three points. That’s pretty consistent with the general approach to the game itself.
But this is interesting because the line for the game hasn’t moved. The initial Super Bowl odds offering of Patriots -3 hasn’t budged since the AFC Championship Game closed.
That number was a lot lower than some people expected — it bakes in the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady factor if these teams are fairly even. It also could’ve easily been something like Patriots -4.5 and no one would have blinked an eye.
At certain sportsbooks, the number is starting to creep a little bit in terms of odds. The Falcons are now +3 (-115), meaning that you would need to bet $115 to win $100. That’s just a nudge from the opening -110 number, but an indication that a swing could potentially be coming.
If the line moved up to Patriots -3.5 you would probably see a ton of cash come flooding in on Atlanta with bettors getting the “hook” (the extra half point to avoid a potential push). And it’s possible late money surges on Atlanta anyway, which could bring the number down to Patriots -2.5.
Additionally, 60 percent of the money is on the over of 59 in this game according to Bovada, which means the public is very much in on the favorite and the over.
If history holds and the underdog and the under covers, it might make up for a rough playoff stretch for Vegas.
Source: CBS Sports Headlines / 2017 Super Bowl odds, latest line: The money’s pouring in on Patriots